Week 14 of the 2024 college football season is here and our VSiN team is attacking it relentlessly. If you haven’t already, make sure you check out the Week 14 CFB Betting Hub for write-ups and picks from all of our talented analysts. However, keep reading for my college football best bets and predictions for this exciting Week 14 slate. I’ll probably add some picks as lines move and more information comes out later in the week — and on game day. If I do, I’ll put them on the VSiN Pro Picks page. Don’t miss out on those.
This is also a Volunteers team that has everything to lose. The Volunteers are currently eighth in the College Football Playoff rankings, so they’ll very likely be in the 12-team field with a win. That means that they’ll be feeling some significant pressure when they take the field. But Vanderbilt will be playing with house money, plus a burning desire to spoil a crosstown rival’s season. All of that, combined with the fact that Diego Pavia will be under center for the Commodores, makes it pretty easy to envision this being a close game late in the fourth quarter. That’s why I’m taking the points.
That was a lot of trends and narratives. I realize that. However, there are some actual football reasons I like Vanderbilt here. The biggest one is that Nico Iamaleava’s home/road splits are awful. While Iamaleava has thrown for 1,525 yards with 12 touchdowns and two picks in Knoxville this year, he has thrown for just 730 yards with three touchdowns and two picks in three road starts. Of course, one of those games was against Georgia. That’s a tough place to play for anyone. But what about a total of 352 yards with just one touchdown in games against Oklahoma and Arkansas? That’s unacceptable. If the Commodores are able to load the box to stop Dylan Sampson, without the threat of Iamaleava beating them over the top, this is going to be a ballgame. And that’s exactly what Clark Lea, a defensive-minded head coach, is going to look to do. He’s going to ask as many questions of Iamaleava as a passer as he can.
On the other side of the ball, Pavia’s improvisation skills should do him wonders here. Tennessee is great against the run and the pass, but the team hasn’t faced a quarterback quite like this one. Pavia is fearless and is going to make plays with both his arm and his legs. He’s also going to feed off the atmosphere, while Iamaleava might struggle with it.
Bet: Vanderbilt +11.5 (-108)
Indiana is also 16th in the nation in EPA per play allowed (-0.078), while Purdue is 102nd in the country in EPA per play (-0.049). So, it’s not like this is a better matchup for the Boilermakers offense. Both sides of the ball feature massive mismatches in talent, structure and execution.
We have also seen this Purdue team on the wrong side of some blowouts already. The Boilermakers lost by 59 against Notre Dame, 46 against Wisconsin, 35 against Oregon, 45 against Ohio State and 39 against Penn State. I’d be shocked if an angry and motivated Indiana team isn’t added to the list.
Bet: Indiana -29 (-110)
Check the Pro Picks page for any additional plays, or come back here right before kick-off to see if I added something on the game you’re interested in.
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2024 Record: 47-44-1 (+5.01 units)
Tennessee at Vanderbilt – 12:00 pm ET
Vanderbilt is 6-1 against the spread against conference opponents this season. Meanwhile, Tennessee is just 7-9 both straight-up and ATS on the road under Josh Heupel, and the team is also 0-3 ATS in games with totals between 42.5 and 49 with him on the sidelines. Those things are hard to ignore, especially considering how much the Commodores have enjoyed being in the underdog role this season.This is also a Volunteers team that has everything to lose. The Volunteers are currently eighth in the College Football Playoff rankings, so they’ll very likely be in the 12-team field with a win. That means that they’ll be feeling some significant pressure when they take the field. But Vanderbilt will be playing with house money, plus a burning desire to spoil a crosstown rival’s season. All of that, combined with the fact that Diego Pavia will be under center for the Commodores, makes it pretty easy to envision this being a close game late in the fourth quarter. That’s why I’m taking the points.
That was a lot of trends and narratives. I realize that. However, there are some actual football reasons I like Vanderbilt here. The biggest one is that Nico Iamaleava’s home/road splits are awful. While Iamaleava has thrown for 1,525 yards with 12 touchdowns and two picks in Knoxville this year, he has thrown for just 730 yards with three touchdowns and two picks in three road starts. Of course, one of those games was against Georgia. That’s a tough place to play for anyone. But what about a total of 352 yards with just one touchdown in games against Oklahoma and Arkansas? That’s unacceptable. If the Commodores are able to load the box to stop Dylan Sampson, without the threat of Iamaleava beating them over the top, this is going to be a ballgame. And that’s exactly what Clark Lea, a defensive-minded head coach, is going to look to do. He’s going to ask as many questions of Iamaleava as a passer as he can.
On the other side of the ball, Pavia’s improvisation skills should do him wonders here. Tennessee is great against the run and the pass, but the team hasn’t faced a quarterback quite like this one. Pavia is fearless and is going to make plays with both his arm and his legs. He’s also going to feed off the atmosphere, while Iamaleava might struggle with it.
Bet: Vanderbilt +11.5 (-108)
Purdue at Indiana – 7:00 pm ET
This might be a rivalry game, but there likely won’t be any funny business. Indiana is 12th in the nation in EPA per play (0.216) this year. This offense has been unstoppable against everybody outside of Ohio State, and Purdue is just 124th in the country in EPA per play allowed (0.087). This really has the potential to get ugly, especially with the Hoosiers still in the College Football Playoff mix. It’s highly unlikely that Indiana will fall out of the field, but some style points wouldn’t hurt. That said, I’m expecting Curt Cignetti to have his foot on the gas for all four quarters.Indiana is also 16th in the nation in EPA per play allowed (-0.078), while Purdue is 102nd in the country in EPA per play (-0.049). So, it’s not like this is a better matchup for the Boilermakers offense. Both sides of the ball feature massive mismatches in talent, structure and execution.
We have also seen this Purdue team on the wrong side of some blowouts already. The Boilermakers lost by 59 against Notre Dame, 46 against Wisconsin, 35 against Oregon, 45 against Ohio State and 39 against Penn State. I’d be shocked if an angry and motivated Indiana team isn’t added to the list.
Bet: Indiana -29 (-110)
Added Plays
PARLAY: Colorado State ML vs. Utah State & UCF ML vs. Utah (-108 – 1.5 units)Check the Pro Picks page for any additional plays, or come back here right before kick-off to see if I added something on the game you’re interested in.
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2024 Record: 47-44-1 (+5.01 units)
